Welcome to the Church of Bayes
A great and in depth guide to Bayes' Rule. You can even vary how deep you want to go!
Bayes has implications for our sense of reality as well.
[Reality] is the product of the brain's predictions about the causes of incoming sensory signals.
"The deeper truth is that perception is never a direct window onto an objective reality. All our perceptions are active constructions, brain-based best guesses at the nature of a world that is forever obscured behind a sensory veil. Visual illusions are fractures in the Matrix, fleeting into this deeper truth."
"[Colors] are cooked up by the brain from mixtures of different wavelengths of colorless electromagnetic radiation. Colors are a clever trick that evolution has hit on to help the brain keep track of surfaces under changing lighting conditions."
"Just knowing this is enough to tell us that perceptual experience cannot be a comprehensive representation of an external objective world. It is both less than that and more than that. The reality we experience - the way things seem - is not a direct reflection of what is actually out there. It is a clever construction of the brain, for the brain. And if my brain is different from your brain, my reality may be different from yours, too."
Plato's allegory of the cave!